The World Platinum Investment Association (WPIC) released the “Platinum Season Journal” in the fourth quarter of 2020, including the amendments to the 2021 forecast.
Due to the strong demand for platinum in the automotive, industry and jewelry industries, and continuous strong investment demand exceeding the limited supply, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the platinum market had a shortage in three consecutive quarters, and 5 tons of deficit appeared.
Overall, although the global economy shrinks 3.5 % in 2020, the platinum market still has a shortage of 29 tons, a record high. Although the total demand decreased by 7 % (-18 tons), the amount of mineral supply dropped sharply by 20 % (-37 tons), and the recovery volume decreased by 10 % (-7 tons), resulting in a total supply decreased by 17 % (-4444 Ton).
In the context of the extensive implementation of the vaccine plan and helping the economies of various economies, the World Platinum Investment Association predicts that platinum demand will increase by 3 % (+8 tons) to 249 tons, and the supply will increase by 17 % (+35 tons) to 247 Tons leads to a shortage of 2 tons in 2021, which will be the third consecutive year of the platinum market. The growth of demand in 2021 will be driven by the strong recovery of automobiles, jewelry and industrial demand, offset investment demand that has decreased but still very strong.
Car industry recovery
With the health recovery of the light and heavy automotive industry, the demand for platinum in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 5 % (+1 ton). In particular, the demand for platinum in North America has increased by 17 % (+0.4 tons), including the strong growth of light diesel vehicles, helping offset the decline in demand in other parts of the world. At the same time, global heavy -duty cars have increased by 7 %, and China has increased by 21 %. In order to fully meet the upcoming Chinese VI emission regulations, car companies need to use catalysts containing larger platinum metal loads, which will promote the increase in platinum demand in the region by 51 % (+1 ton).
The production of light vehicles is expected to be resumed in 2021 to reach the level close to 2019. Although there is still a little gap between the complete recovery, it is expected that the global automotive industry’s demand for platinum will still increase by 25 % (+19 tons). And in the rear processing system of the gasoline vehicle, use platinum instead of cricket gold.
Platinum investment demand is high
In the fourth quarter of 2020, the investment demand was 86 % lower than the third quarter of the same year (-26 tons), but it was 63 % (+2 tons) higher than the fourth quarter of 2019. It was the highest record of the total demand in the quarter. The net purchase volume of platinum bars and platinum coins increased by more than doubled year -on -year, an increase of 112 % (+1 ton), while the ETF positions increased by 2 tons in the quarter, an increase of 56 % over the previous year.
Investors’ interest in platinum is not reduced. Platinum plays a key role in the use of hydrogen energy economy, production of green hydrogen and its use in fuel cell electric vehicles. The large stickers of the golden gold all indicate the strong fundamentals of platinum in the future. Although platinum investment (including platinum bars, currency, and ETFs) forecasts will maintain a strong momentum (or average level within 5 years) in 2021, it is expected that it is difficult to exceed the ultra -ordinary level of 2020. The demand for platinum bars and platinum bars is expected to decrease by 15 % (-3 tons) year-on-year, but it will still remain at a high level. In general, the global ETF investment net holding volume is expected to increase by 8 tons (about 50 % lower than 2020).
Platinum jewelry industry is recovering strongly
Platinum jewelry manufacturing showed an upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2020, an increase of 7 % (+1 ton). Among them, the growth of demand in North America was particularly significant (the first quarter of 2020 increased by 4 % (+0.1 tons) in the first quarter of 2020). In the first quarter of 2017, the Chinese market has increased for the first time since the first quarter of 2017, a year -on -year increase of 15 % (+1 ton).
In 2021, with the recovery of economic life and the end of the most difficult period of the new crown epidemic, various markets will recover, and the total demand for jewelry is expected to increase by 13 % (+7 tons) compared with 2020.
Paul Wilson, chief executive officer of the World Platinum Investment Association, said: “In 2020 full of hardships, we often see and read the word” record level “, and have been accustomed to it. The investment demand of the record highlights the rare attraction of platinum in the global high -risk period as a hard asset, which stems from its deep stickers in gold and gold and its strong short -term and long -term demand growth potential. “
Paul Wilson pointed out that after experiencing the dark moment of the epidemic and the slowdown of the global economic slowdown, people are imagining the possibility of the world restored to normal. The positive momentum of economic recovery in the second half of 2020 is reflected in the re -start of economic activities, as well as the rebound of platinum demand in the automotive, industry and jewelry industry.
“However, when we get rid of the epidemic, the role of platinum plays in the global decarcation is now one of the most obvious global services that shows during the epidemic. Platinum is the production of green hydrogen hydrogen hydrogen hydrogen hydrogenia And the key metal of electric vehicle fuel cells, and investors’ understanding of this is rapidly increasing. Due to the global accelerated investment in decarburization, the increase in hydrogen supply increases, the production cost is reduced, and the fuel cell vehicle will be platinum in the next ten years. The annual demand may exceed one million ounces. In addition, because platinum accelerates the replacement of gold in the car catalyst, platinum demand will exceed one million ounces each year in the next four years.
Paul Wilson believes that the substantial growth of demand, coupled with the rebound in recent months, is likely to promote the increase in investment demand for short -term and long -term investors. Attracted by the strategic foundation of this unique metal market demand, the number of investors who have not considered platinum but now start to pay attention to will continue to increase. When these investors have a deep understanding, they discover the potential of the deep water and demand growth of platinum compared to gold and gold, which will greatly increase the possibility of growth in investment demand.
1. 3,650 thousand ounces on the ground (114 tons) as of December 31, 2018 (metal focus).
2. Non -road vehicle demand is included in the demand for car catalysts.
3. Metal focusing and SFA (Oxford) data may not be compiled on the same or directly comparable.
4. The SFA data before 2019 automatically enters the closest 5,000 ounces.
This article originated from the release